Welcome back to another week of Unlikely Aces. This time next week, we'll be grilling hot dogs, watching fireworks, and celebrating our freedom. It will be August before we know it! Fantasy baseball managers are running out of time to find those season-saving arms on the waiver wire, but surely there are still some league-winning starting pitchers out there somewhere!
Each week, I'll take a look at three starters who have found recent success despite lesser outlooks across the fantasy landscape. By diving into some analytics, we can try to predict whether a back-end arm can potentially carry fantasy managers to glory, or if the strong performances are more likely a flash in the pan.
Are these unlikely aces for real, or is it safe to leave them out on the waiver wire with negative regression surely coming in bunches quickly? Let's take a deeper look!
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Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels
60% Rostered
Anderson's ownership percentage is a little higher than I typically like to go with this column, but I couldn't help point him out as one of the unlikeliest aces of all. I really wanted to dig deep to find out... Is there actually anything to like about this aging lefty? I've always assumed the answer is no.
Turns out... I think I'm still right on this one. But the 34-year-old continues to fight the good fight, with a ton of luck on his side.
Walks usually plague Anderson and that hasn't changed, as his BB/9 rate is up from last year to a wild 4.17. He's also striking out considerably less batters, down below 6.00 K/9 on the season now. Anderson is getting a few more ground balls, which is leading to a few less home runs, but it's nothing noteworthy. His hard-hit percentage is about where it was last year.
So why is Anderson's ERA 2.63 while his xERA is 4.71 and his xFIP is 5.27? Well, a .225 BABIP and a 86.6% LOB rate are almost fully to blame. The southpaw was extremely lucky in 2022, but even that season-long BABIP was .256. His LOB% has never been above 77.8% in MLB.
Final line for Tyler Anderson:
5 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 5 BBs, 2 Ks, Season-High 109 PitchesTwo ways to look at it:
-Didn't have his best stuff, but still battled through
-Struggled against a bad team, trade him before he's found outWhat say you?#RepTheHalo #GoHalos #Angels #LTBU
— Locked On Angels (@LockedOnAngels) June 26, 2024
Ultimately, Anderson is still a ticking time bomb. Some fantasy managers might see a few more changeups and fastballs and seven wins on the season and think the veteran is worth a shot... I don't recommend you to be that manager. But maybe, just maybe, Anderson will keep shoving this good luck charm in our faces in 2024.
Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs
33% Rostered
Taillon struggled to find any sort of consistency in his first year with the Cubs last season, but so far in 2024, he's found his groove to the tune of a .290 ERA and four wins despite striking out just 53 batters through 68.1 innings pitched.
The former Pittsburgh Pirate has allowed more than three runs just once, and in his last three starts, he's really shined with three quality starts and 18 strikeouts in 19 innings. Could the 32-year-old be regaining his 2018 form?
The luck metrics seem to be in check, as Taillon's LOB% is in the 70s and his BABIP is just fine at .297. The lack of strikeouts is a bit concerning, but his walk percentage is down nearly a percentage point since last year. His hard-hit percentage is the lowest it's been since 2018. The righty's command seems to be improved this year, and he's avoiding barrels at a much better rate. Let's see if anything has changed in his pitch mix.
The only substantial change seems to be more curveballs by Taillon. An approach that worked very well in 2018, but then was iffy at best during his stint in New York and last year.
Jameson Taillon's 3Ks in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/qsQn8FPC6O
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 4, 2024
Taillon's curveball does seem to be more effective this year than previous seasons, and he's using it more, which is a great sign. There's still some life in that fastball, so command will be the biggest key in staying consistent in Chicago.
This feels like a classic "ride it until it breaks" situation where I would not be surprised to see some of these great qualities slowly fade, as they have in previous years. I'd be shocked if Taillon doesn't have a few blips when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley.
Still, there's plenty to like here, and we know the talent is there. J-Mo is not old enough to throw in the towel yet, and while I wouldn't consider him an ace, he should probably be rostered in most leagues to be used. Especially when he's on the road or the wind is blowing in on the north side of Chicago.
Cade Povich, Baltimore Orioles
11% Rostered
While Povich is just four starts into his MLB career, it may be time to take note. He faced three difficult lineups since his grueling debut, and he's fared quite well.
The 24-year-old blanked the Braves for six innings while striking out six, he battled well in the Bronx (limiting the Yanks to just one run over 4.2 innings, though he struck out just one), and he most recently worked around a homer to go 5.2 innings against the Guardians, allowing three earned runs with five strikeouts.
Walks are a concern early for Povich, as he has amassed 10 in his 21.2 innings of work. That's an issue the southpaw dealt with in the minors as well. The good news is his stuff should play nicely and the strikeouts should become more consistent considering he's throwing nasty sweepers like this...
Cade Povich, Filthy 83mph Sweeper. 😷 pic.twitter.com/t18qyjSHCq
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 12, 2024
Povich has a friendly pitcher's park to work with, a low hard-hit percentage so far, a low line drive rate, and some promising film to catch our attention. We're not in "must roster" territory yet, but in deeper leagues, you have to snatch these guys up before the gem of a start makes them a hot commodity.
I'd like to see Povich's roster rate get closer to 25%. I'm definitely interested in grabbing him and playing the matchup game for now, especially in deeper leagues. The lefty should have a bright future ahead of him!
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